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Opinion North Korea risk too high for military option

18:07  21 april  2017
18:07  21 april  2017 Source:   usatoday.com

State paper says China would protect a denuclearised North Korea

  State paper says China would protect a denuclearised North Korea <p>China would step up its protection of North Korea should the isolated state halt its nuclear programme, an editorial in a state-backed newspaper said on Thursday, as Beijing tries to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula.</p>Pyongyang's continued nuclear and missile testing programme has prompted the United States to send a navy carrier group to near the Korean peninsula in a show of force aimed at detering more tests.

To find out more about Facebook commenting please read the Conversation Guidelines and FAQs. North Korea risk too high for military to diplomacy — the much discussed military option “on the table” — has essentially been off the table because it runs the catastrophic risk of spiraling into a

Trump Inherits a Secret Cyberwar Against North Korean The KN-14, one of two types of intercontinental ballistic missiles that North Korea is developing, at a military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, in.

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Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

North Korea’s impressive parade of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles last weekend occurred as the Trump administration asserted it was not ruling out any option to address this rising threat. With echoes of Cuba in October 1962, this slow-motion missile crisis will play out not in Robert F. Kennedy’s legendary Thirteen Days, but over the next two or three years.

North Korea crossed the nuclear threshold a decade ago when it conducted its first atomic test. The precipitant of the current crisis is that the Pyongyang regime is now on the brink of vastly expanding its small nuclear arsenal. Left on its trajectory, by 2020, North Korea could have a nuclear stockpile of 100 warheads that can be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.

North Korea displays submarine-based missiles for first time at military parade

  North Korea displays submarine-based missiles for first time at military parade North Korea displayed its submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) for the first time on Saturday ahead of a massive military parade in the capital, Pyongyang. North Korea warned the United States on Saturday to end its "military hysteria" or face retaliation as a U.S. aircraft carrier group steamed towards the region and the reclusive state marked the 105th birth anniversary of its founding father.State TV showed images of the Pukkuksong-2 SLBMs on trucks waiting to be paraded in front of leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korea crossed the nuclear threshold a decade ago when it conducted its first atomic test. A freeze would preclude the additional testing that North Korea still needs to master miniaturization and reliable long-range missiles.

As the United States considers its policy options towards North Korea it must understand that Pyongyang has been thinking about military conflict for decades. It too will have military plans and they could pose major challenges for the U.S. This is why China and South Korea –and U.S. regional

The contrast between North Korea’s atomic arsenal (which could, incredibly, approach half the size of Britain’s) and its paltry economy (a gross domestic product of about $17 billion, comparable with Asheville, N.C.) is jarring. North Korea is essentially a failed state on the verge of a nuclear breakout. And this totalitarian state is run by a dynastic cult — the Kim family.

A North Korean ability to strike the U.S. homeland would be a game changer. Vice President Pence declared in South Korea on Monday that the Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience” was over — but he did not indicate what would follow.

Strategic patience had essentially resulted in acquiescence as North Korea built up its nuclear arsenal and made substantial progress in miniaturizing warheads and acquiring an intercontinental ballistic missile capability. In response, the United Nations and the United States have imposed still stricter sanctions on the Kim regime. But sanctions are not a strategy.

China seeks Russia's help to 'cool' N. Korea situation

  China seeks Russia's help to 'cool' N. Korea situation China is seeking Russia's help to cool surging tensions over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, the country's foreign minister has told his Moscow counterpart, after Beijing warned of possible conflict over North Korea. Fears over the North's rogue weapons programme have soared in recent days, with a US naval strike force deployed near the Korean peninsula, while President Donald Trump has warned the threat "will be taken care of" and Pyongyang has vowed a "merciless" response to any provocation.

In short, all the military options are high risk . But preventing North Korea from reaching an intercontinental nuclear capability may be deemed an It could also test a missile, whether an ICBM or shorter range, that hits a ship or plane or lands on or too close to Japan or South Korea , he said.

It's Far Too Soon For The Military Option When It Comes To North Korea . High intensity military drills are underway in both South and North Korea . It is in many ways a reminder of just how little the US would need to commit in terms of risking its own warfighters during the opening strikes of a conflict.

With North Korea perilously close to becoming a major nuclear power, America should pivot to serious diplomacy. Since the end of the Cold War, when the North Korean atomic challenge arose, U.S. hard-liners have eschewed diplomacy toward this “rogue state” because they view it as tantamount to appeasement.

The alternative to diplomacy — the much discussed military option “on the table” — has essentially been off the table because it runs the catastrophic risk of spiraling into a second (this time, nuclear) Korean war. No U.S. president could authorize even a “limited” strike on a missile site and discount this escalatory risk. When the United States can’t bomb and won’t negotiate, it is in fact acquiescing to a continued North Korean buildup. That unsatisfactory prospect reinforces the case for transactional diplomacy through coercive engagement to block North Korea’s current disastrous course.

McCain: North Korea 'first real test' for Trump

  McCain: North Korea 'first real test' for Trump How President Trump responds to North Korea's push to develop a nuclear missile capable of striking the United States could be the "first real test" of his administration, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday.&nbsp;If North Korea were to fire a missile at the U.S., "we would have to rely on our ability to intercept it, and by the way, I'm told that we do have that ability," McCain told NBC's "Meet the Press.

ROK, Japanese analysts see a pre-emptive strike against the North as far too risky . While the Trump administration explores options , including use of military force, to counter North Korea ’s They say that any U.S. military action against North Korea entails high damage risks on South

China and Russia would no doubt strenuously object too , and The reality is that none of the military options available to the US for dealing with North Korea come without high costs and significant risks - considerations that it will have to weigh up against uncertain and problematic potential outcomes.

Though a full rollback of North Korea’s atomic program is not a realistic goal, transactional diplomacy to freeze its capabilities at their current level might be attainable. This would make the best of a bad situation: When zero warheads is not an option on the table, an agreement capping North Korea at 20 nuclear weapons is better than an unconstrained program that hits 100 warheads by 2020. And a freeze would preclude the additional testing that North Korea still needs to master miniaturization and reliable long-range missiles.

Why should diplomacy succeed this time when it has failed in the past? New conditions that change China’s strategic calculus. Until now, Beijing has been lackadaisical in its enforcement of sanctions and has declared that Pyongyang was Washington’s problem. But a North Korea with a large atomic arsenal and ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. homeland would be a game changer. That's true not only for America but also for China, where risky consequences could include the possibility of South Korea and Japan reassessing their own non-nuclear intentions.

Ex-ambassador: Trump 'trying to out-North Korean the North Koreans'

  Ex-ambassador: Trump 'trying to out-North Korean the North Koreans' President Trump is "trying to out-North Korean the North Koreans," which "makes people nervous," former Ambassador Christopher Hill says."I think he's trying to out-North Korean the North Koreans, so let's see if that works," said Hill, who previously served in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations as ambassador to Macedonia, Poland, South Korea and Iraq.

China claims military solution to North Korea not an option as world leaders call on it to step up pressure. “The Chinese are doing something in terms of sanctions but they’re not going to go the whole hog because the risk of destabilising the political situation is too high ,” he said, adding that

In this report, CRS identifies seven possible options , with their implications and attendant risks , for the employment of the military to denuclearize North Korea . Such a conflict could also involve a massive mobilization of U.S. forces onto the Korean Peninsula, and high military casualty rates.

Transactional diplomacy would decouple the nuclear issue from regime change. It would create the conditions for success by identifying a point of near-term optimization among the parties.

A freeze would permit Pyongyang to retain a minimum deterrent and the Kim family regime. For Beijing, it would preserve a strategic buffer state and avert the adverse strategic consequences of a nuclear-armed North Korea. And for Washington, a near-term interim agreement freezing North Korean capabilities would prevent a breakout and be characterized as the first step toward long-term denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

This analytical option should be put to the diplomatic test. Otherwise, we are left with the bad options of bombing or acquiescing.

Robert S. Litwak is vice president for scholars and academic relations at the Wilson Center and director of International Security Studies. He is the author of Preventing North Korea's Nuclear Breakout.

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Tillerson calls for new UN pressure on North Korea .
<p>Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Friday called on the United Nations to tighten pressure on North Korea to dismantle its weapons programs, warning that a failure to do so could have "catastrophic consequences."</p>"For too long the international community has been reactive in addressing North Korea," Tillerson said at a meeting of the U.N. Security Council. "Those days must come to an end. Failing to act now on the most pressing security issue in the world may bring catastrophic consequences.

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